The TillPeak
Gold Strategy
Our research covers the full precious metals complex — from physical metal proxies to mining equities and the macro forces that drive multi-year cycles. Not portfolio management. Research and positioning intelligence.
Four lenses. One cohesive view.
TillPeak Gold organizes its research into four distinct categories, each serving a different role in the analytical framework.
Core Holdings
The foundational layer — high-liquidity, direct precious metals exposure through established ETF vehicles. This is the anchor of any hard asset allocation framework.
- SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) — largest gold ETF by AUM
- iShares Gold Trust (IAU) — low-cost physical gold exposure
- Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) — allocated vault-held gold
- iShares Silver Trust (SLV) — primary silver ETF vehicle
- Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver (SIVR)
Satellite Opportunities
Mining equities offer leveraged exposure to metal prices with additional upside from operational improvements, resource expansion, and cost margin compression in rising price environments.
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) — senior miner basket
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) — junior miners
- iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners (RING)
- Select large-cap royalty and streaming companies
- High-quality individual producers (analytical targets)
Tactical Views
Shorter-duration research themes based on current cycle positioning. These represent the highest-conviction views within a defined time horizon, subject to macro change.
- Silver's relative undervaluation vs. gold (gold/silver ratio)
- Junior miner sector rerating thesis
- Options strategies for defined-risk exposure
- Seasonal and sentiment-based positioning windows
- Currency pair overlays (USD weakness scenarios)
Macro Signals
The macro layer that contextualizes all precious metals positioning. These are the primary drivers monitored on a continuous basis to assess cycle direction and conviction.
- US real interest rates (TIPS yields)
- DXY dollar index trend and momentum
- CPI / PCE inflation trajectory
- Central bank balance sheet expansion signals
- COT positioning data (speculative + commercial)
The research process
TillPeak Gold's research process follows a top-down framework — starting with the macro environment, then filtering through the precious metals complex to identify where the risk/reward is most compelling at any given stage of the cycle.
Macro environment assessment
Evaluate the current interest rate regime, inflation trajectory, dollar trend, and central bank posture to establish the macro backdrop for precious metals.
Cycle stage identification
Determine where precious metals are within their multi-year cycle — early accumulation, mid-cycle momentum, or late-cycle distribution — using price structure, sentiment, and positioning data.
Instrument selection & sizing
Based on cycle stage and macro backdrop, assess which instruments — physical ETFs, miners, silver — offer the best risk-adjusted research case within the current environment.
Continuous monitoring & reassessment
Thesis conviction is not static. We track the key macro variables continuously and update our research framework as conditions evolve — including when we're wrong.
Signal status indicators are illustrative representations of our analytical framework — not real-time market data or investment recommendations.
What drives precious metals
Six macro forces shape the direction and magnitude of precious metals cycles. We track all of them continuously.
Inflation Dynamics
CPI and PCE trends determine the real return environment. Persistently elevated inflation erodes fixed-income returns and increases demand for inflation hedges.
Interest Rate Regime
Real rates (nominal minus inflation) are the most reliable macro driver of gold pricing. Negative or declining real rates have historically correlated strongly with gold bull markets.
Central Bank Activity
Sovereign gold purchases signal institutional confidence in gold as a reserve asset. Consistent net buying at the national level creates a structural demand floor beneath spot prices.
Currency Weakness
USD weakness is a structural tailwind for dollar-denominated gold prices. DXY trend direction and momentum are tracked as a leading indicator for precious metals positioning windows.
Geopolitical Stress
Escalating geopolitical tensions historically drive safe-haven flows into gold. While episodic, sustained geopolitical fragmentation can add a persistent risk premium to precious metals pricing.
Commodity Cycle Trends
Precious metals do not exist in isolation. Broader commodity cycle inflection points — driven by supply underinvestment, demand acceleration, or dollar cycle turns — provide important contextual signals.
What could challenge the thesis
No research thesis is complete without a clear-eyed assessment of the risks. TillPeak Gold's framework explicitly tracks the conditions that would challenge or invalidate precious metals positioning.
Rising Real Rates
A sharp rise in real interest rates — driven by central bank tightening outpacing inflation — is historically the primary headwind for gold. We monitor TIPS yields as a leading indicator.
USD Strength Cycle
A sustained dollar strengthening cycle creates price headwinds for gold. Dollar bull markets driven by US economic outperformance and rate differentials can compress precious metals returns significantly.
Deflation / Demand Shock
While gold sometimes benefits from financial panic, a sustained deflationary environment or severe demand destruction can pressure commodity prices broadly, including silver and mining equities.
Read the latest market insights
See how the TillPeak Gold framework applies to current macro conditions and precious metals positioning themes.